According to Forbes reporting, the first inflation report since President Donald Trump implemented his tariff policies last month was released Tuesday. The data revealed that price increases were more moderate than economists had anticipated.

However, analysts caution that this preliminary data provides an incomplete picture of the tariffs’ full economic impact on consumers. The report captures only the initial market response to the policy changes, not their potential long-term effects on the consumer price index.

Economic experts note that the comprehensive inflationary consequences of these trade measures will likely emerge gradually in subsequent reports. The ultimate impact remains contingent on whether the administration maintains its current tariff stance or adjusts its trade policy approach in the coming months. CNBC stated that “While the April CPI figures were relatively tame, the Trump tariffs remain a wild card in the inflation picture, depending on where negotiations go between now and the summer.”   

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% for the month, resulting in a 12-month inflation rate of 2.3%—the lowest since February 2021. The monthly CPI reading met expectations, but the annual rate was slightly below the Dow Jones consensus of 2.4%.

The core CPI, excluding food and energy, also increased by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year. This monthly core CPI figure was below the 0.3% forecast, while the annual rate matched the 2.8% expectation. 

Background 

Following a brief recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. economy experienced a surge in inflation, reaching a 41-year peak of 9.1% in mid-2022. While price increases have gradually eased over the subsequent 2.5 years, inflation has remained above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target of 2% since February 2021. In response, the Federal Reserve has maintained historically high interest rates in a sustained effort to curb inflation, despite repeated calls from Trump to lower rates to stimulate economic activity.

April 2025 Inflation Report: Key Findings

• Annual Inflation Rate: According to Tuesday’s Bureau of Labor Statistics report, consumer prices increased 2.3% from April 2024 to April 2025, marking the lowest inflation reading since February 2021.
• Performance vs. Expectations: The headline inflation figure came in below economists’ projections of 2.4%, based on consensus estimates compiled by Dow Jones.
• Monthly Price Movement: On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices rose 0.2% from March to April 2025, precisely matching economist forecasts. 
• Core Inflation Metrics: Core CPI inflation (excluding volatile food and energy components) registered at 2.8% year-over-year, aligning exactly with analyst expectations, while the month-over-month core increase of 0.2% was below the anticipated 0.3% rise.

According to the Forbes article, economists agree that tariffs lead to increased inflation as businesses transfer import costs to retail prices. However, the frequent adjustments to tariff rates under the Trump administration make accurate forecasting of the resulting inflation particularly difficult.

A stark example of this uncertainty is UBS’s projection of CPI inflation reaching 5.4% by year-end, a forecast made before the U.S. temporarily decreased its tariff on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%. Echoing these concerns, JPMorgan Chase’s chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, wrote last week that he anticipates inflation will “ramp up in the subsequent months as tariffs get passed into pricing.”